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In my personal opinion, I think Blu Ray could eventually replace DVD.  I also think its equally likely that Blu Ray becomes some sort of transition technology between DVD and the next big thing.  As such, it would never really catch on with the mainstream.  At this point, that seems more likely to me as over 90% of the disk buyers seem perfectly content with SD.  By the tiime that balance significantly shifts, its inevitable that some new technology will be introduced.

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I think what a lot of enthusiasts fail to recognize is that Blu Ray isn't some kind of leap in home entertainment for many consumers, merely a refinement to the existing disk based technology.  As such, a lot of consumers figure they'll get around to it someday, if ever.  Couple that with advancements in video-on-demand offered by cable systems and I think we're going to start seeing a further decline in disk purchases.  The video-on-demand quality isn't competitive, but that's not what the bulk of people care about.  They care about convenience and not having to store the thing.  Portability and flexibility in media will end up trumping quality, or at least take a significant bite out of the pie.

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People WILL buy HDTV's as the analoig cutoff date continues to approach. When they do, they'll look at a bundle HDTV + Blu-ray player.

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No they won't. The mass majority here in the US will get the coupons for the digital-to-analog converter boxes just like I did and they'll continue to use their analog TVs until they can possibly afford the Blu Ray luxury.

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Quoting 8ballMax:

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No they won't. The mass majority here in the US will get the coupons for the digital-to-analog converter boxes just like I did and they'll continue to use their analog TVs until they can possibly afford the Blu Ray luxury.

Or if you already subscribe to Cable TV, you won't even need to bother with a converter box...at least with Charter.

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Quoting mdnitoil:

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I think what a lot of enthusiasts fail to recognize is that Blu Ray isn't some kind of leap in home entertainment for many consumers, merely a refinement to the existing disk based technology.  As such, a lot of consumers figure they'll get around to it someday, if ever.  Couple that with advancements in video-on-demand offered by cable systems and I think we're going to start seeing a further decline in disk purchases.  The video-on-demand quality isn't competitive, but that's not what the bulk of people care about.  They care about convenience and not having to store the thing.  Portability and flexibility in media will end up trumping quality, or at least take a significant bite out of the pie.

You mentioned an important word "enthusiasts". That proves my point. I too think that Blu Ray is gonna remain a thing for enthusiasts. Like Laserdisc was. You pay more money but you get better quality.
You only talk about the Picture side of it. The sound is now a lossless copy of the theatrical presentation. I don't think that there will be any more advancements in that area. Now we already have 7.1 with 7 speakers or even 9 with the Yamaha System where they have additional front speakers. Who would be willing to put more speakers than that in their room. So soundwise we are at the end of the line. Picturewise I think there might be some improvements possible but as I said:

BLU RAY IS THE LASERDISC OF THE 21st CENTURY: Meaning an superior system that will (possible) never penetrate the mass-market

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Quoting NewEnglander:

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That's why HDTV sales continue to rise, right?

We're not talking about HDTV sales alone here...we're debating whether Blu Ray will become the Laserdisk of the 21st Century. Sure, HDTV sales are rising as prices drop. One can get a 20" - 26" LCD HDTV for $350 - $500.00 but when coupled with the cost of additional equipment to go Blu Ray, I don't believe "the masses" will be clammoring at the doors of retailers at Christmas buying up Blu Ray. Regular Joe Shmoe has more pressing matters at the moment, like filling up his gas tank to get to work. If Regular Joe  can continue to purchase SD DVDs with more special features for $15 less than the same Blu Ray title then he'll continue to do so. If he needs to replace his worn out DVD player he can do so for $79.99. Why would Regular Joe pay $300 - $700 for a Blu Ray player and pay more for movies when he's completely satisfied with DVD? Where's the incentive? Pretty picture alone doesn't cut it.